Assassination attempt in Doha: Netanyahu’s failed gamble

By Mustafa Ibrahim
Hamas announced the failure of an assassination attempt targeting its delegation in the Qatari capital Doha, while Israeli media rushed to leak details of an operation they described as a major security and intelligence achievement. Whatever its immediate results, the strike carries implications beyond a technical target: it exposes the limits of the Israeli bet on assassinations and reveals the fragility of the US position in covering up a war of extermination.

The Israel Defense Forces radio, citing two security sources, said they were “not optimistic about the success” of an attempt to assassinate Hamas leadership in Qatar. Former head of military intelligence Amos Yadlin also hinted at the failure of the Doha assassinations, in the first indirect admission after a wave of boasting that came out last night.

Israeli Security Minister Yisrael Katz said on Wednesday morning: “If Hamas does not accept Israel’s conditions to end the war, foremost among them the release of all the hostages and disarmament, we will destroy it and Gaza will be left in ruins.” But he did not describe the attack in Doha as successful, reinforcing doubts about its outcome.

The operation was not the first against Hamas leaders abroad, but it gained particular significance because it targeted a leadership meeting dedicated to discussing the latest US proposal on a prisoner exchange. That timing led analysts to believe the strike was nothing more than an attempt to lure the negotiating delegation and kill them, rather than a move to open a new political track. Trump himself spoke of a “final warning” he had issued to Hamas, while Channel 12 and Axios revealed that the US proposal was not a plan to destabilize Gaza as Netanyahu and Katz would like, but rather a partial formula for a prisoner swap.

In that sense, it appears that the so‑called “negotiations” are no more than a cover for assassinations and a means to prolong the war — an approach previously used against other parties: the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah while awaiting a negotiated response, and strikes on Iran ahead of direct talks.

Domestically in Israel, Netanyahu and Katz continued to portray the strike as a “major achievement” that boosts the prospects of victory. But military analysts noted that this propagandistic language does not hide the direct danger to the fate of the Israeli hostages, whose lives are increasingly threatened with each assassination or ground offensive expansion. Senior security officials, led by Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, stressed weeks ago that progress on the hostage file was more fruitful than the gamble of a full occupation of the Strip. Nitzan Alon, the official responsible for the hostages file, warned that any broad ground operation would multiply the risks to those held captive.

Moreover, the strike sparked political tension with Qatar, the main mediator in any negotiation. Trump said he had informed Doha in advance, while Qatar denied this and insisted it was notified after the operation. This contradiction raises questions about whether Qatar leaked information to Hamas, which could explain the operation’s failure, especially amid reports that Qatari guards were killed during the incident.

In sum, the operation did little to change the balance of power. It did not weaken Hamas leadership enough to force concessions, nor did it open a new political horizon at present — though that could change later — but it added more uncertainty about the future of negotiations and may have reinforced the movement’s conviction that any US initiative is a trap. As for Netanyahu, he succeeded in raising regional tensions and increasing Israel’s isolation, without facing any accountability or international punishment.

Amid Israeli hubris and its violations of all international norms, international humanitarian law and diplomacy, Israel is pushing destabilization further while the world stands silent before its crimes. Nevertheless, the Doha assassination was not an “achievement” as Israeli leaders claim, but a risky gamble that could bring them closer to a larger political failure, while the heaviest price remains the continued bleeding of Palestinian lives and the squandering of any prospect for a genuine negotiated solution.

The attack also exposed the fragility of the Arab stance and how easily it can be penetrated, in the absence of decisive measures against Israel that would make it pay a political price for its arrogance. But it is clear that this dream is far from realization, given the absence of an Arab will capable of stopping the extermination and imposing a real cost on Israeli hubris.