Can Trump save Israel from itself?

By Hani al-Masri

Reports circulating about ideas that Trump presented to Arab and Muslim leaders on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly — if confirmed and announced as an executable plan, and provided Netanyahu does not succeed in extracting or neutering them in his meeting with Trump next Monday — point to an American retreat from its previous position.

These ideas can be read as an American attempt to save Israel from itself, even at the expense of Israel’s objectives of extermination, annexation and displacement in Gaza, and of the increasing settlement activity and creeping annexation in the West Bank. Ron Dermer reportedly discussed these ideas before they were presented to Arab and Muslim leaders, together with Jared Kushner and Tony Blair, whose name has been mentioned as the de facto governor of Gaza during a transitional period.

Although the items of the 21-point plan have not yet been published in full, what has been released contradicts positions of Washington and Tel Aviv and approaches the Arab formula adopted at the Cairo summit last March. Among the published items: the release of Israeli captives after twenty days; a ceasefire; the disarmament of Hamas and its removal from power; the formation of a self-administration for Gaza under Arab and international supervision and American leadership with a limited role for the Palestinian Authority; Arab and international financing for reconstruction through an international body and oversight institutions; enabling humanitarian aid to enter through international organizations; the formation of an Arab-UN force to guarantee security; alongside an end to the war and a gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces.

A lesson from history: if we go back to 2003, when the “Roadmap” was proposed — which for the first time spoke of a Palestinian state with temporary borders and of halting unilateral steps — Ariel Sharon’s response was “Yes, but…” followed by 14 reservations that undermined the core of the plan. Although the stated and underlying objective of the Roadmap was to achieve what US President George W. Bush outlined in June 2002 about changing the PLO’s leadership and finding a new leadership to cooperate in the war on terror, it was not implemented even after the Palestinian leadership changed. The concern, if caution is not exercised, is that this plan could end with a Palestinian authority or authorities tailored to American and Israeli conditions and objectives.

Therefore, caution is imperative so that Trump’s plan is not a step backward disguised as progress — a move that would destroy the global momentum that put Israel in a condemned isolation over its war of extermination, starvation, displacement and annexation; an isolation that pushed around 160 countries to recognize a Palestinian state and prompted increasing international, Arab and European moves to impose sanctions on Israel. The danger of a tactical US–Israeli retreat is that it could provoke a counterattack expressed as a bargain between the Arab plan and an “Israeli” plan, in which Netanyahu may submit amendments that preserve Israel’s system of buffer security zones in Gaza and the right to intervene anywhere it feels threatened, participate in the reconstruction authority and supervise the self-administration, impose a vision that undermines the return of the Authority or reduces its role to a token one, or even seek to change the Authority to fully conform to Israeli conditions. The West Bank would be in the eye of the storm: in exchange for halting its war and abandoning its goals in Gaza, Israel is expected to demand wide freedom of movement in the West Bank. While Arab and European pressure may prevent broad formal legal annexation there, partial annexation of areas near Jerusalem and asserting sovereignty over settlements could occur. Practices could go as far as converting Area B—which is under the Palestinian Authority’s civilian oversight—into Area C under full Israeli civilian and security control, effectively liquidating the Authority over larger parts of the West Bank and turning roughly 82% of the West Bank into Israeli security and civil control. Guarantees for continuity: global mobilization and sanctions. The trade-off that could push the US administration to adopt the plan without amendment is the persistence of international momentum supporting the Palestinians.

Thus, for the plan to be a means of a genuine halt rather than a temporary cover, global pressure — including boycott, sanctions, legal accountability — and popular and diplomatic action that imposed Israel’s political and diplomatic isolation must continue. The greatest danger in the ideas proposed is placing conditions on the victim: disarming Palestinians and excluding Hamas from the scene without placing any conditions on the perpetrator, and placing the Palestinians under Arab and UN guardianship (in practice led by the United States), which would leave the risk of displacement standing behind the veil of “transition.” If Tony Blair — with partners like Kushner — leads this scene, the possibility of displacement will remain, especially if global momentum wanes or fractures due to disagreements over how the international coalition supporting Palestine handles the American ideas.

An opportunity to stop the extermination — do not squander it. Yes, there is an opportunity to halt the extermination and frustrate plans for displacement, annexation and the liquidation of the Palestinian cause that stems from the deepening crisis facing the United States and Israel, and thus from an American desire to save Israel from itself, even at the expense of its current government that has fallen into extremism, arrogance and brutality and imagined there were no limits to the use of force and what it could do, plunging it into a worsening crisis. A halt will require the continued steadfastness and resistance of the Palestinian people and their adherence to their rights, not treating unjust and oppressive conditions as if they were Palestinian demands, and keeping the global pressure on Israel in place through boycott, sanctions, accountability and legal pursuit. It must be realized that the solution is not only replacing Netanyahu’s government but the fall of the expansionist project based on occupation and settlement that seeks annexation, displacement and the liquidation of the Palestinian cause in all its components. Only continued steadfastness, defense of rights and unified Palestinian representation free from tutelage, proxying and containment, empowering the Palestinian people to determine their fate and choose their representatives in free elections, along with international and popular pressure, will guarantee the success of any plan presented and turn it from a tactical retreat into a real and lasting change that preserves rights and